GfK consumer climate study for March 2021 Relaxations to do the consumer climate is good
The beginning of March begun easing of tough Lockdowns, as well as the time of the interview, declining infection, the consumer sentiment numbers have inspired. The economy, income expectations and propensity to improved considerably.
At the beginning of March the Lockdown was loose and had a positive impact on the mood of consumers in Germany, such as the GfK consumer climate study for March 2021 shows. Market researchers forecast for April, a value of -6.2 points 6.5 points more than in March of this year (revised -12,7 points). This increase in the optimism may come as a surprise at first glance. Since the survey in the period from 4. to 15. The March took place, the events to the vaccine, AstraZeneca, as well as the significant increase in the infection of the last days do not pay taken into account.
The survey period was characterized by first loosening and stable or even slightly declining infection numbers. A very similar trend was also observed in the spring of 2020, as also the hard Lockdown has been relaxed. As the infection now have to pay again to rise, and the Lockdown is nationwide tightened again, it is questionable whether the improvement in Consumer sentiment will continue.
“The re-tough Lockdown will harm the consumer climate difficult, and the current improvement remain a straw fire. A sustained recovery in consumer sentiment, will, therefore, continue to wait for the dealer and the manufacturer of the means continue to be difficult times,“ says Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert.
The sharp increase in the consumer climate, the significant improvement in the income expectations provides, in March, the main contribution. The indicator has gained 15.8 points and climbs 22.3 counter. A higher value was measured exactly one year ago, in March 2020, with 27.8 points.
With the re-opening parts of the trade, the expectation that the short-time work is driven back and you can expect a better development of Income rises, apparently, also in the case of many workers. In addition, the fear of job loss is likely to have been reduced slightly.
With the rising income expectations, the acquisition wins tilt in March. However, the growth with an increase of 4.9 points are much more modest. The indicator has 12.3 points and is good for 19 points below the previous year’s level.
A fundamental and sustainable improvement in the propensity to consume is only with further extensive relaxations in the trade and services possible. Due to the rising infection numbers is not currently expected that it will come to these relaxations. Quite the contrary, it is a tightening of restrictions threatens again. This would bring the propensity to consume a setback, declared the CSF. The consumer recovery would be delayed further.
Also, the economic Outlook has improved in March. After an increase of 9.7 points, the indicator has currently 17,7 counter. A better value, it was last measured in September 2020. At the time of 24.1 points to book.
With the first easing of the harsh Lockdown, consumers expect a further recovery of the German economy. Open to many shops and services, such as hairdressers, stimulated at the time of the survey, the economic optimism. In addition, the Outlook for German exports have improved, since both in the United States as well as in China, the growth forecasts, through extensive aid programs, were revised upwards, according to market researchers.